Brno - The Social Democrats (ČSSD) are likely to win South Moravia in regional elections held next Friday and Saturday, according to polls conducted by STEM and SC&C for Czech Television's politics talk show Otázky Václava Moravce (Questions of Václav Moravec).

The poll suggests a major shift of voter support in the region. South Moravia has the highest concentration of practicing Roman Catholics, and it was the only part of the Czech Republic where the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) won the last regional elections in 2004. The party may now lose its traditional bastion.

According to the STEM poll, the right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS), leaders of the Czech government coalition and the expected winners in most other regions, would retain their second place in South Moravia. With 19 percent of the vote, they would stay far behind the opposition ČSSD, which would reap 29 percent.
 
The Communists (KSČM) would get 17 percent of the vote, moving KDU-ČSL with only 13 percent from the top to the fourth place. The Green Party is breathing down the Christian Democrats' neck with a 12 percent support.

The SC&C poll suggests ČSSD will harvest 31 percent of the vote and ODS just 18 percent. KDU-ČSL would come third with 14 percent of the vote, ahead of the Communists who would receive 9 percent. No other party would gain more than 5 percent, according to SC&C.

The poll shows that two out of three KDU-ČSL and Greens sympathizers are women, while men tend to support ODS, the Communists and smaller non-parliamentary parties.

In terms of affiliations by age groups, the region shows the same trends as the rest of the country: Young people tend to vote for the Greens, the middle-aged people with a university degree mostly prefer ODS, while the elderly usually give their vote to the Communists, ČSSD and KDU-ČSL.

The voter turnout next week in South Moravia is expected to be 63 percent.