Prague - The proposed Syria intervention by the West will not have a very big impact, believes Rasheed Khalil from the Czech Republic's Syrian community.
"I think it will not influence the situation on the battlefield much. It will provide moral support for the opposition, the fact that the West is able to help militarily a bit. But there won't be any fundamental twist. In the end, the Americans themselves say that the objective of the attacks is not to overthrow Assad, but to send him a warning and force him not not use chemical weapons on large scale. So far, (the Americans) have tolerated their use on small scale," said Khalil, who is also a member of the Free Syria Initiative, a Czech civic association that backs the Syria rebels.
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According to Khalil, the regime is not willing to find a political solution of the conflict. "I believe that the regime's leaders understand that it is too late for such an agreement. That's why the regime employs such desperate measures as is the use of chemical weapons. Even though as a result it harms itself."
Some experts say that the recent chemical arms attack near Damascus points to a rupture inside the regime, with a more radical member of the the Syria leadership deciding to launch a chemical attack in order to prevent the regime from making concessions to start negotiations with the rebels. "It is possible. There have already been divisions inside the Assad family in the past. Or the recent case of Assad's father-in-law, Assef Shawkat, who was assassinated last year under strange circumstances. Assad's sister and mother live in the United Arabic Emirates. According to my sources in Syria, Assad's younger brother Maher is behind that chemical weapons attack."
Maher Assad is the commander of the elite fourth armored division and the republican guard.
"People say that last year's attack that killed Shawkat, the defense minister and some other officials in Damascus was carried out by the opposition, but I believe it was Maher who killed them. Maybe they were planning a coup of sorts."
Does this mean that Maher has a bigger say in the Syrian military than Bashar Assad himself? "Of course," says Khalil. "He is a soldier, he commands the republican guards, which is the elite of the Syrian armed forces. The attack was a response to an assassination attempt on Bashar Assad, which took place two weeks ago in Damascus. Rockets were fired on his convoy in the city center," said Khalil.
Khalil also said that the presence of Al Qaeda individuals in the Syrian opposition is of Assad's making. "These groups mostly include former prisoners or extremists who were freed by the regime. It is artificially created, because a decisive majority of Syrians are against such extremes. I believe that after the war they will not obtain much influence in the Syrian society."
